The slow down has just begun, especially for Canada.
The problem is that the banks in underwater with commercial real estate lending, massively so.
Rents are dropping fast and hard.
The overhang of new/newish construction is much more profound than anything seen since the Great Depression -- and even including it!
Moodys calculated that Arizona, California, Oregon and Nevada will normalize in twenty years maybe twenty five.
Why so long? Population demographics and financing.
Down payments, which used to be zero, are climbing fast back towards 10 and 20 percent down; more for landlords.
Based upon incomes, most of the recent construction is unaffordable to new buyers. Many existing occupants are not paying their mortgages at all. Best estimates place these in the millions of homes, nationally.
Falling real wages means that the ability to purchase a home is also falling in real terms. Here abouts ECs are dropping their wages 20 to 30 percent and cutting out all health benefits. If you don't like it then the exit door awaits.
This wage roll-back is across the board.
Every day CraigsList shows tradesmen liquidating their most marketable high dollar tools. I expect that unemployment in our craft will continue to rise and rise until the contraction reaches 80 percent, perhaps more. ( California drew tradesmen from all over the country during the boom, so it's only natural that the drop must be dramatic.)
Speed-ups are also underway as well as piece work. Many marginal operators are throwing away the rule book to stay afloat. It can work until the day it doesn't.
The only port in the storm is new wave PV arrays and in the out-years installing heavy-ups as the market embraces electric vehicles.
I'd never thought that I'd ever see the day that these two would take off. But the Federal credits make solar viable for many, especially here.
As for electric cars, astounding increases in battery performance ( now shown in the iPad, iPod, and iPhone ) should provide batteries that can actually be recharged in twenty minutes without being cooked to death.
So, in the out-years, I expect to see commercial recharging stations along the major highways.
In the same vein, CNG refueling stops are sure to crop-up. CNG runs diesels super well -- and at HALF the cost! Truckers will embrace cab-top tanks.
In the mean time, we're all in the hurt locker. No one has it easy.
