ECN Forum
Posted By: Obsaleet Are you busy - 01/30/09 05:25 AM
Just received a call from a freind of mine that he is only working 22 hrs this week. He said he's glad his house is paid for. Asked if I needed any help. Fortunatly I am staying steady busy. This does however make me very nervous.

Ob
Posted By: HotLine1 Re: Are you busy - 01/31/09 04:17 PM
Ob:

Don't get nervous, but be concerned and vigilant.

The Twp. that I work in has been 'steady' as far as insp3ections. Talking to a few EC's, there's a wide range of economic effects.

One who does new resi only (tract multi-fam) has let 43 guys go! The major builder he works for stopped all projects.
This, IMHO is a good example of putting all your eggs in one basket!

Another EC...he's 'steady'; four guys gone; eight still in.

Comm is slow to-steady; a few guys are 'dead', some are 'busy but not like '07'.

Posted By: leland Re: Are you busy - 01/31/09 05:03 PM
I have commented before how the fire alarm is recession proof.
Not so,I am starting to see a big slow down.
From inspections to installs. Suppression even,most inspections are getting done because the INS. Co are on their tails for the paper work.
The exception being the Power plants and Petrolium based facilities.

However the service work is always there for these systems.
Still working every day.
Posted By: WireNuts29 Re: Are you busy - 01/31/09 05:22 PM
Work has slowed down alot, alot. My company has a service group which i work in, and a construction group which does the big jobs. Construction jobs are almost at a stand still, lots of those guys have been layed off. Service is keeping busy, but not like I'm used to. In the not so distant past I would have at least three jobs which i could go to on any particular day, there was so much work going i had a hard time remembering which job i was at and where i left off. Hopefully the money holders start spending it again. And yes Leland fa testing is keeping us busy too, thank god Rhode Island requires quarterly testing.
Posted By: Obsaleet Re: Are you busy - 02/01/09 07:45 PM
I have found it to be about the same here service company's are OK commercial is down and new resi is non existant. I was wondering if it was the same all over the country?
What do you do if you close the doors?Is anyone hiring?


Ob
Posted By: Zapped Re: Are you busy - 02/02/09 04:16 PM
This will probably get worse before it gets better, but I'm thinking positive and forseeing a pick up towards summer time.

Traditionally, both service and construction slows down between February and May (here anyway), and this, coupled with the limp economy, may make this coming slow season one of the toughest we are likely to see - ever.

My plan is to hang in there and keep a tight cap on spending. No major tool or vehicle investments until things pick up, and I'm taking the smallest of jobs that come up to keep my guys busy in the field.

Hopefully this slow down will at least weed out the lousy contractors and allow those of us that work hard to prosper accordingly when the industry kicks in again.

Good Luck Out There!
Posted By: Tesla Re: Are you busy - 02/04/09 12:02 AM
We are early into our nation's greatest depression...

So pack away all the cash that you can...

Commercial Real Estate is destined to crash this year, 2009.

Then the contraction will roll into Services.

The only bright lights: subsidized PV systems, the move to electric cars, the roll out of VFD HVAC upgrades, the continued expansion of Title 24 modifications, the roll out of LED fixtures into the main market, the upgrade of LCC's across the land...

What will be dead, dead, dead: backyard upgrades, new construction outside of government and health care, residential -- tract or otherwise -- Strip Mall TI's...

If you play this right, you'll be left standing even after most of your peers have bankrupted themselves.

Extend credit to any GC at your peril.

Branch out into the foreclosure resolution business.

Let your apprentices go as soon as possible, you'll die trying to carry them through the depression.

Liquidate all idle assets ASAP.

Kill off all debts.

Do not buy any major tools, vehicles.

Downsize your shop; lower your monthly nut ASAP.

Sell the 'toys' ASAP.

There will be no way to avoid the punishment.

Don't waste money on high dollar advertising.

All HELOC ( Home Equity Line Of Credit ) will be shut down in very short order.

Expect huge contractions in Credit Card Limits... It's already well underway at the major issuers.

Live cheap or you won't make it.
Posted By: mahlere Re: Are you busy - 02/04/09 02:06 AM
why not just slit the wrists now and save all the hassle?
Posted By: leland Re: Are you busy - 02/04/09 05:02 AM
WOW DUDE! Any cash that you have saved...... Seek Help!!!

We Control our own destiny!

It's out there if you want it. Just like a big game.


Who wants it more?

By your screen name I see you like magnetism.
Now that can be used in a 'Positive form Or a negative form'
Your choice. Believe it or not!!!
Posted By: bauler Re: Are you busy - 02/04/09 04:14 PM
The best bet is to turn off the TV. I wonder how much of this recession is really caused by talking it up, just like the real estate bubble and oil prices. Watch your cost, but watch out for good deals. Don't cut your advertising, you do that and you will slow down. Remeber, you're in it for the long haul. Just like when the economy is good, this too will pass.

We are not even close to a depression.i.e dust bowls, bread lines. In the 30s you would be lucky to own a radio. Today if you can't afford that big flat screen TV with surround sound you think we are in a depression.

Hang in there. I would say we are bottoming out now. Should look better later this year. Good luck...
Posted By: Tiger Re: Are you busy - 02/04/09 04:15 PM
It might be a good time for a vacation Tesla. Take a break, take a deep breath & get a fresh perspective. I'm a conservative businessman, but there is work. I just look at it as the winter of a recession. It's going to be slower. Wait it out & by the end of the year sales will probably be the same as last year.
Posted By: dougwells Re: Are you busy - 02/04/09 08:48 PM
It seems everytime I spend money on my business More work shows up
whats with that ???
Posted By: dougwells Re: Are you busy - 02/04/09 08:49 PM
I look at Advertising and overhead as just an investment for future work.
Posted By: HotLine1 Re: Are you busy - 02/05/09 12:51 AM
Related to this subject, our permit flow is 'close' to last year. last year was -110 permits compared to '07.

Basically 'close' is good!

Tesla:
Time for a vacation or a break guy, times are tough....but not that bad

Posted By: frenchelectrican Re: Are you busy - 02/05/09 01:13 AM
For bussiness wise it is not too bad just little slow side but still manangeable but still busy most case in both USA and France.

There is plenty service call I can able take it without much issue.

Tesla., I agree with others guys just relax one way or other it will rebound again.

Merci,Marc
Posted By: renosteinke Re: Are you busy - 02/05/09 01:13 AM
It's timw to realize that there is no reason for hope anymore.

Out of the kindness of my heart, I shall galdly take care of the toos and supplies you won't need anymore. Send them at yyour expense; you won't need all that bothersome moeny, either.

Just set your phone to forward your calls to 1-XXX-XXX-XXXX, and I shall take these worries off your hands.

If you've lived a good life, say 'hi' to JC for me. If not, tell my ex I DON'T miss her laugh
Posted By: Trumpy Re: Are you busy - 02/05/09 08:14 AM
Someone break out the ProZac! aspirin

Man, is this thread getting depressing.

One thing you have to realise is that it's going to get worse before it gets better.

I've been talking to a few electricians in the course of my work recently and while no-one is being laid off over here (yet), the existing staff of a lot of EC companies are on short days and even shorter weeks.

People just aren't spending the money that they were say a year ago or if they are, they are shopping around for the lowest price job they can get and you and I all know what that means. eek

Posted By: Obsaleet Re: Are you busy - 02/05/09 02:50 PM
I personally am steady. however my trips to the supplier are much easier as there is hardly any one in there. And ever time I go in they ask are you busy? Which leads me to believe all is not well in paridise. I have been seeing lots of new face and trucks on the road. We have no licensing here so you get laid off, you go out on your own.

I wish I could be more upbeat. I just keep thinking spring is around the corner.


Ob
Posted By: gfretwell Re: Are you busy - 02/05/09 06:17 PM
New construction is dead in SW Fla. They had 13 permits opened since new year in my county. During the go go time it was usually over 1000. The guys I know who are working are doing small jobs or maintenance. Things still break and homeowners who realize they are going to be living there a while are fixing them up. My wife's HOA is still doing a fair amount of building and repair. She is happy she can throw some work to her contractor friends.
Those are the kinds of thing you have to pursue. This is when your networking skills pay off. Get together with the other trades you know (plumber, drywall, carpenter etc) and try to offer a simple solution for complex problems. Most people outside of the building business don't have a clue where to start when they have a problem that involves more than one trade.
Posted By: luckyshadow Re: Are you busy - 02/06/09 03:45 AM
With all this doom and gloom talk we all must remember one thing.
No one has any clue as to when the economy will start turning around. Everyone is yelling it's going to get worse before it gets better. Did one stop to think about this...
When it comes to the economy no body has a clue as to when we're "at the bottom" until it turns around and starts going the other way.
I would suggest that everyone just calm down and ride it out the best way they can. The more people panic the worse it will be.
Think about the depression in the 1930's people paniced and created a run on the banks.
Posted By: frenchelectrican Re: Are you busy - 02/06/09 04:27 AM
Originally Posted by luckyshadow
Think about the depression in the 1930's people paniced and created a run on the banks.


If my memory serve me right there were two more depression era sometime in 1800's so we kinda expect that to be cycling.

sorry to get off topic here.

Merci,Marc
Posted By: schenimann Re: Are you busy - 02/06/09 05:37 AM
Originally Posted by gfretwell
This is when your networking skills pay off. Get together with the other trades you know (plumber, drywall, carpenter etc) and try to offer a simple solution for complex problems. Most people outside of the building business don't have a clue where to start when they have a problem that involves more than one trade.


I agree. The economy was so good the work just flowed in. At some point you have to go and drum up work and not wait around for calls. Bid all the work you can, do cold calls, try new fields. I'm pricing a deck for my neighbor. All I can do is all I can do. But am I doing all I can do to get work?
Posted By: Zapped Re: Are you busy - 02/06/09 05:02 PM
If you have a chance to talk to anyone that actually weathered the great depression, you will find that they look back on it with a certain nostalgia. They will almost always say that what got them through it was to keep looking into a better future.

A positive attitude and hard work will make the worst of times a lot more tollerable, and looking towards a better tomorrow is essential in coming out of hard times on top.

Good Luck and hang in there!
Posted By: renosteinke Re: Are you busy - 02/06/09 05:32 PM
Recent experiences have reminded me ... this is no time to sit back and feel sorry for yourself.

I stopped by one long-time customer, whose plant is "outside of town." Since he's off the beaten path, I had not been there for a while; but I had another call nearby, so why not say 'hi?' I left with two small jobs.

I also dropped in on a pool equipment firm I had once crossed paths with on a job. "We have a guy we use" was quickly followed by "Can you do commercial work?" Turns out 'their guy' is a handy sort on their payroll ... but on commercial jobs, they need a licensed EC to keep the city happy. There just might be something develop from that.
Posted By: gfretwell Re: Are you busy - 02/06/09 07:30 PM
#1 tip
Be the "reliable guy".
Return all your calls as quickly as possible and keep your commitments. Be on time and ready to do the job.
That will go a long way towards getting referrals.
Posted By: u2slow Re: Are you busy - 02/08/09 04:47 AM
Having a job as a part-time engineer has given me the freedom to screen some would-be customers a whole lot better. I'm talking about the people that want free estimates and think a new receptacle or hanging a ceiling fan are $30 jobs.

I have more work lined up now than I did working on my own full-time.

This part-time venture has also exposed me to contacts I would never have met otherwise. These contacts are people that want reputable service and understand the value of hiring a qualified professional.

IMHO, a consistent 22 hours/week is fine if they are for the right customers. wink
Posted By: Tesla Re: Are you busy - 02/25/09 11:12 PM
Somewhere up this thread I mentioned credit card contraction.

Now it's official with American Express: they want thousands of their clients to close out their accounts pronto. If this is done, the lucky ex-debtor will receive a $300 spiff.

Their reasoning is very straight forward: credit card defaults are exploding upward -- it's time to shut down Amex's exposure.

This is also going on within every bank in the nation. All credit cards are being reviewed. Obviously, any client whose income flows from construction or real estate, generally is very high on the list.

If you have your loans at the same institution that holds your checking account be very afraid. My own uncle had the misfortune of discovering just how quickly you can go from being a 'great account' to 'collections' when business conditions changed. In his case, Boeing lost the TFX contract and overnight the real estate market imploded. With the stroke of a pen, his bank grabbed all of his deposits to kill off his loans. No notice was given. All he got was overdraft fee notices.

With the banks still on their backs and the shadow banking system destroyed...

Construction in the following states has been nuked: Arizona, California, Nevada, Florida, Michigan.

If you are outside the blast radius you may survive.

However, do not get caught up in 'magical thinking'.

Don't overrate your ability to out ski the avalanche.

When Paul Volcker and George Soros both agree that we're in for some serious...

Then beware.

I say again: energy savings is where you ought to focus. Lighting, Lighting Controls, VFD...

You want to be a primary contractor: the GC's are going to fail to pay so often that they'll take you under.

Posted By: dougwells Re: Are you busy - 02/26/09 12:30 AM
I been riding out this storm for 13 months now credit card balances are less than a 1000.00 my line of credit is still there i make the min payment and its building again all this with less work fewer hours put in etc.
but when i use my amex card or MC i dont try to hold a balance they get paid before i buy food.
Mind you I drive an old van never bought new furniture, i dont have any toys like a boat or a snowmobile to make payments on.

Maybe being poorer than most has made me not so dependent on credit. An old hotelier once told me if you borrow money you have to pay it back . I have never forgotten that and he told me that 15 years ago.
Posted By: renosteinke Re: Are you busy - 02/26/09 01:04 AM
I have to agree with Doug ....

Forget wasting your energies watching Washington, or doing someone else's worrying for them. It's time to focus on YOU - and your BUSINESS.

I really don't care what someone says on TV - I don't even own one. I do care about finding the next job, etc.

Personal credit, and business credit, ought to be two entirely separate topics. It's one thing to use it to buy the latest toy; quite another to use it to get the parts for the job you'll collect on next week. Or, to borrow so you can get the tool that will let you get that future work!

There ARE customers out there, and there IS work to be done. All "hard times" does is separate out the weaker businesses .... so your focus needs to be on making your business stronger, rather than worrying about things beyond your control.
Posted By: HotLine1 Re: Are you busy - 02/26/09 03:06 AM
Gentlemen:

WELL SAID!

Perhaps the doom & gloom that we are subjected to 24/7 by the 'talking heads' could be replaced by some 'good news'!

I find it hard to believe that there is nothing GOOD for any of the media to talk about; perhaps that is a part of the problem?

I hear 'crude oil' prices at least 2-3 times during my 1 hr drive to and from work. UP/down etc. Why??

The stock market (Dow) opens at 9:30AM, reports are on the air at 9:30 & 30 seconds. Why??

Is there nothing 'good' happening? A puppy born? A child that got an 'A'; a good deed that was done? Anything??

BTW: Work climate here is about the same as I posted up in this thread. There's work!

Think positive! Take care of yourself & your livelyhood!

Posted By: etech Re: Are you busy - 02/26/09 06:32 PM
I have to agree with you guys. It was easy to run a business when the economy is good. Now I see why a tough economy will separate the men from the boys. I hope I make it through this downturn.
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 02/27/09 01:52 AM
want to really be bummed out? be a political junkie like me , and read a lot

in march of '08 Congress had a closed door session, 3rd time since we were a nation

a few months later, Henry (if i had hair, it'd be on fire) Paulson leaps right over the R word, to threaten us withe the dreaded D word

in October '08, American troops were stationed acroos the nation, you can google Army Times for this if you like

heck you can google Rex84 if you'd really like a scare

my point is, our governance knew our titanic bubble economy was going to burst

and they had a contingency plan in place

of course i suppose one could argue that the pentagon has a contingency plan for killer tomatoes

but i digress.....

so now we're bailoutistan

well, i guess we can watch where all that stimu-ola is going to, and maybe get a piece to get by

check out Stimulus Watch

oh and, chin up through the heavy swells mates.....
~S~

Posted By: leland Re: Are you busy - 02/27/09 02:34 AM
I Answer with.....One for all and all for one.

A "well formed Militia" The time has come. Who's in?

Time to dance or look on.

"We aint stealing,We're just taking back"

K, 'bout as uptight as I'm gonna get tonight.
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 02/27/09 03:09 AM
well i dunno Ice, methinks my shotguns aren't much of a match against those F16's

but i find many bring up the 2nd these days, it's like some sort of freedom-o-meter we're all hanging our hats on

personally, i think we'd really be something if we even paid a small % of the same attention to the other 26....

but i'll meet you half way here, how many of you have taken a few $$$ under the table?

see, not all secessionists wave guns.....

~S~
Posted By: HotLine1 Re: Are you busy - 02/27/09 03:16 AM
Under the table $$$ is good, but...watch out the revenue'rs ain't watching. Them IRS boys show up in places you might not imagine!

Heck, there chasing people for state tax on cigarettes bought from the indian reservations.

PS: let's try to keep the politics out guys
Posted By: leland Re: Are you busy - 02/27/09 03:25 AM
Well put HotLine:
Agreed! As much as I disagree.

If that makes any sence!
Posted By: HotLine1 Re: Are you busy - 02/27/09 03:33 AM
The State tax guys here are on a desperation drive to collect anything they can. Gov is facing a multi billion deficit for this fiscal year, and a disastor for next.

But, as I said....there has to be some good news somewhere??

Now, let's try to avoid a 'thread jack'....

Back to business.....
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 02/27/09 03:57 AM
well i'd like a silver lining as much as the next EC Hot one, maybe this stimulus work will pan out (watch the link for your state)

but to be honest, there's a lotta GC's playing bothe ends toward their advantage, beating us down now, insisting we take less

what i'm really afraid of is we're going to be stabbing each other in the back....

~S~
Posted By: leland Re: Are you busy - 02/27/09 05:30 AM
Originally Posted by sparky
well i'd like a silver lining as much as the next EC Hot one, maybe this stimulus work will pan out (watch the link for your state)

-------Don't hold your breath.----

but to be honest, there's a lotta GC's playing bothe ends toward their advantage, beating us down now, insisting we take less

---Like they are not now!!?-----

what i'm really afraid of is we're going to be stabbing each other in the back....

---From above... we are not now!!!!?------
~S~


The good news: I am adopting my buddies cat 'BoB'. Coz he lost his job and has to move.
So i'm really only being the Foster Dad.
Posted By: HotLine1 Re: Are you busy - 02/27/09 02:36 PM
Sparks:
The back stabber could also be one of the hacks!

As to the stimulator...yes, the heavy construction (roads etc) may see $$$; but I doubt if the average EC (resi/small comm) will see anything.

Leland:
Thanks for the good news!
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 02/28/09 02:59 PM
Quote
Sparks:
The back stabber could also be one of the hacks!


yeah, they do get on my nerves here....

Quote
As to the stimulator...yes, the heavy construction (roads etc) may see $$$; but I doubt if the average EC (resi/small comm) will see anything.


oh i dunno, seems there's always a few crumbs for us wee folk Hot one, i did get a job doing lights via some bridgework project once....

and i'd be more than willing to jump in as a sub on some of those shovel ready jobs, they always need a few local scarecrows....

on well , this always cheers me up>>>>

Always Look On The Bright Side of Life

~S~
Posted By: dougwells Re: Are you busy - 02/28/09 08:47 PM
Thanks that was good for a chuckle
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 02/28/09 09:29 PM
Hey Doug, if you've a twisted sense of humour like mine you'll like this>>>>>

(link removed)

~S~

Let's get back on subject here please...
Webmaster
Posted By: Tesla Re: Are you busy - 03/03/09 03:45 AM
Action in the markets is getting scary right now.

Further declines can build momentum downward: many 'legacy' corporations still have defined-benefit pension plans on the books.

Under the latest accounting rules the pension fund portfolio standing behind the retirees must be Marked-To-Market for each reporting period. Any losses must be reflected to the income statement and balance sheet.

Since this is hardly unique... in such a severe market drop as now: each company's troubles link directly into the next.

We have a real prospect of run-away bad news.

Such depressing events can then lead to even further business contractions.

It is particularly unfortunate that the President has decided to increase taxes on energy: that's where we make our living.

Proposed cap and trade schemes will make coal generated power much less economic. Since half of our juice comes from coal the impact will be felt widely.

The current state of the markets means that no one can raise serious money... even for 'green power' projects.

IIRC one of the nations biggest solar companies 'fell out of bed' the other day: a huge slug of booked orders just got canceled at a stroke. The stock lost 40% in the blink of an eye.

That's not good, since PV systems is one of the few areas that offers decent work prospects.

So if energy taxes are going up, then it is all the more important for every electrician to emphasize efficiency.

I just don't see a big market for anything but savings.

Posted By: leland Re: Are you busy - 03/03/09 04:52 AM
Chill pill needed. Please.

I am not working,my savings are dwindling,the house needs painting (again).

BUT:

My child is healthy,my bride (female spousal equivalent) is beautiful,my neighbors are great, I'm adopting a cat named "BoB",My dogs 'go' outside. spring is coming (in the Northeast that is huge!)and I'm sure of 100 other good things (just rattled now so a lil' brain block)

And what little I have,I'm spending on the carpenter and the plumber (both local). I'll rebuild the economy myself by spending my money on things I need.

I suggest we all do the same. Buy a mattress and put the cash in it (shut down the TV). 1 contractor and project at a time.

Just smile. Life is good (and what you make of it).You could be dead. That is forever.
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 03/03/09 05:57 AM
yanno, i've been trying to break into the solar gig here, but the #'s just don't amortize that well

at least in Vermont....

the state, as many do, have a really swell rebate deal, but you have to have a certification

and the schools for it are few and far.....

~S~
Posted By: renosteinke Re: Are you busy - 03/04/09 04:45 PM
As many know, I am helping teach apprentices two nighta a week. I won't deny it: this work has made a huge difference in my situation. I took the job for fun; it has turned out to be critical. December was particularly grim.

In the past week, many of the larger contractors have had to cut back; most of my students are working 20 hour weeks. The trade association is trying to keep other occupied, with haz-mat classes and the like.

On the positive side, I am beginning to see the return of a few trade-related classifieds in the paper. How serious these ads are is open to question .... but the classifieds were empty for December and January.

One cannot understate the importance of attitude in a time like this. Today, we got hit with a whopper of a snowstorm - this is GREAT news. Why? Because, in one fell swoop, our water reserves have been restored to 'normal,' giving us one less thing to be glum about. Heck, I may even volunteer some time, teaching our fish how to swim again laugh
Posted By: HotLine1 Re: Are you busy - 03/05/09 02:39 AM
Reno:
FWIW, I teach (P/T) at a County Vo-Tech, 1 or 2 nites, also basically for 'pocket money' & giving the 'young ones' guidance.

Last week, two looked really glum....I asked 'what's up'?
Both were laid-off from there jobs.

Our classifieds have been void of 'electrician' jobs for the last 3+ months. Today's had 1 electrician/comm/experienced ad.

Better days are coming. It's another day closer to spring; expect to see 45-55 degrees for a high Fri/Sat to melt the 12" snowfall.

Posted By: leland Re: Are you busy - 03/05/09 04:50 AM
I'm seeing 2-3 adds a week related to the field.
Applied to all. No answers. 1 interview,not suited for either of us.

I think my 23 years ,is scaring some,they may need to pay me.

Got another interview on Friday,This CO is looking for 3 service techs,1 FA and 4 construction guys. I have worked for them in the past.This could be the first solid option in a month.

Another guy (1 hr away) called and has 2 good size jobs coming up. This is a casual acquaintance.He is going to try to help.

My luck (usually bad) these will all break at once and I'll need to decide.
Could have worse problems I suppose.

keep smiling,things always pick up in the spring!
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 03/05/09 09:13 PM
i pulled a permit on a building which went out of biz last month, a reno for a new biz to move in

but the new biz leesee didn't pull a building permit, as i found out today when the fire marshal showed up

they (the state) wants 30K-40K worth of code updates done before anyone or anything opens their doors there

so , due to beauracracy, i'm home sitting on my a*s here....

~S~
Posted By: Tesla Re: Are you busy - 03/06/09 12:53 AM
The stock market is tanking, especially GE because the details are coming out about Obama's energy tax scheme. In a nutshell coal fired power is going to be taxed massively.

Obama said [in a January 2007 interview] that the environmental policies he proposes would cause builders of new coal plants to go bankrupt. And he didn’t sound the least bit sad about the prospect…

Obama stated that;

…under my plan of a cap and trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket…whatever the plants were, whatever the industry was, they would have to retrofit their operations. That will cost money. They will pass that money on to consumers.

One provision of the ARRA is that residential electricity use is to be digitally monitored. Obviously this is setting the stage for retail use taxation.

Any such taxation would be poison to the introduction of electric vehicles.

What has me so concerned is that the rate of taxation will essentially DOUBLE the retail cost of electricity.

I'm thinking I'm going to have to find another way to make a living.
Posted By: HotLine1 Re: Are you busy - 03/06/09 01:08 AM
Sparky:
Does the beauracracy involve life safety upgrades? Any electrical included in the 30-40K?

"Upgrades" for various codes upon a change of occupancy are pretty standard to facilitate the 'new' use, and to clean-up what I call "sins of the past"

A CCO (continued certificate of occupancy) is required here for resi and comm/ind to determine IF there are any life safety situations/violations, and if there was any work done without permits/inspections. A check of records for any 'open' permits is also done.

IMHO, that is not bureaucratic, it is for the safety of the public.

Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 03/06/09 02:01 AM
quote=HotLine1
Quote
Sparky:
Does the beauracracy involve life safety upgrades? Any electrical included in the 30-40K?

well there might be some emergeny lighting upgrades for me there,and i'm trying to talk the leasee into some T8 retrofits, as we do have a good rebate in the state of Vermont for anyone who pursues efficency.

Quote
"Upgrades" for various codes upon a change of occupancy are pretty standard to facilitate the 'new' use, and to clean-up what I call "sins of the past"
yeah i know Hotone, i can't argue with it either , it's just the demographic disparity that exists here that moves people to skip boarders ....we've lost a number of businesses that way, and subsequently jobs....

Quote
A CCO (continued certificate of occupancy) is required here for resi and comm/ind to determine IF there are any life safety situations/violations, and if there was any work done without permits/inspections. A check of records for any 'open' permits is also done.

actually, it exists here as well, i usually call the state when i'm asked, not being a nfpa101 expert

Quote

IMHO, that is not bureaucratic, it is for the safety of the public.


ok, and you and i are in the business of creating a safe electrical enviroment for people, that's why they call us

but let me ask you here, just how much are you willing to call 'existing' on a reno to be competitive in this economy?

for instance, a while ago i was solicited to do a church rewire. It's 90% original K&T

they said their insurance company required that the building is K&T free.

the magnitiude of the job, even in emt and wiremould is 5 figures, and that doesn't include the drywall/paint damage/repair

they don't have the $$$, period

but they're not 'safe' according to their insurance company

yet they are an existing installation according to the state

my advice? upgrade the service so that every single breaker is on an AFCI and ask said insurance company and the state if they'd sign off on it

~S~

edited to add , would Dave Dini & Rich Marchand be proud of me or what!
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 03/06/09 02:06 AM
Originally Posted by Tesla


I'm thinking I'm going to have to find another way to make a living.


i'm thinking of raising chickens again, yanno i had amost 100 of them strutting about at one time

and i learned to make an omlet outta almost anything, so if i can pull it off again, omlets, over easy, sunny up, wrecked on a raft, scrambled or boiled eggs are on me....

~S(i've got egg on my post!)parky~

Posted By: HotLine1 Re: Are you busy - 03/06/09 03:55 AM
Sparky:

I have no issues with the NJ UCC Rehab Sub-Code for existing & renov work....within the scope of the Rehab Sub-code.

As to the church....I don't think the AFCI thing is a good move with the K&T....perhaps GFI??

The guys living with "AFCI's" for a while may have experienced comments on this!

Better days are coming (I hear)

edited to correct a typo in haste
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 03/06/09 04:14 AM
HotLine1
Quote
Sparky:

I have no issues with the NJ UCC Rehab Sub-Code for existing & renov work....within the scope of the Rehab Sub-code.


Hotone, i have no issue with any code if it's amdinistered equally , the problems arise when a disparity in enforcement exists

Quote
As to the church....I don't think the AFCI thing is a good move with the K&T....perhaps GFI??
perhaps combo units, it's still be more economical for the powers that be to conceed to this.

Quote
The guys living with AGCI's for a while may have experienced comments on this!

i can't even google a AGCI Hotone, perhaps you meant something else? or yet again i'm last to know?

Quote
Better days are coming (I hear)

yeah, well we've all got our fingers crossed, but sorts like myself that already live the reclusive iconoclast lifestyle have seen this comming for quite some time HotOne

we live the way we do because we're aware of the system's fragility, which should be obvious to anyone with brains god gave geese by now

i'm not so worried about myself out here, i'll survive, it's the specture of all my nieghbors tanking around me that really worries me

~S~
Posted By: HotLine1 Re: Are you busy - 03/06/09 02:20 PM
That's what typing in a hurry causes....

Should be "AFCI" oops!!

AFCI is not required here in NJ, YET. Apparently the builders lobby was successful over the last few code cycles to have AFCI's amended OUT of the adopted NEC within the NJUCC.

AS to the sinking $$$ situation...it's getting deeper around here too.

Sorry for making you google my typo,,,,stay safe
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 03/06/09 03:59 PM
hey no skin HotOne

on the afci's, Vermont has thought they're the best thing since sliced bread for a deacade now

one can add in the area of $1000-$1500 (and that's OUR cost) to a service upgrade and/or new home filling a panel full of them

~S~
Posted By: leland Re: Are you busy - 03/06/09 08:57 PM
Would the ckts not have to be GFCI.Based on 406.3(C)(3)(c)?

K&T, must be all 2 wire receps. AfcI should not come into play unless the living quarters are attached.

Just my thought.
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 03/06/09 11:24 PM
probably so Leland, but it would be up to the ahj really, and s/he'd probably see it all as trying to 'sneak one by'

Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 03/06/09 11:27 PM
oh btw~

there's some stimulus $$$ going to the green machine

a newsletter here has details

funny how that word stimulus has taken on a whole new meaning lately eh....?

~S~
Posted By: HotLine1 Re: Are you busy - 03/07/09 03:15 AM
WE here in the Garden State here that AFCI's will only be required for new construction/additions/re-wire jobs, which is a blessing. As soon as they get around to adopting the '08.

IMHO, doing a service change/upgrade could turn into a nightmare......am I on the right track??

I heard a lot of cr*p when I did a '08 changes CEU seminar, guys were all over me regarding $$$, AFCI, TP/WR, etc.

Change is tough for some. "Guys, I don't write it, I enforce it!"

Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 03/12/09 12:00 AM
yeah well, there's nothing like trying to sell $1000 worth of code safety where it isn't enforced HotOne...

but anyways, i wanted to post what might be good news here, seems 23% of our grandkids stimulus $$$$ is going to go to small biz (correct me if i'm wrong, but doesn't the SBA consider that 500 or less....?)

Here's the article

copy/paste for those of you who don't have a Wall St Journal script....




ENTERPRISE MARCH 10, 2009 Opportunity Knocks and Uncle Sam Is at the Door Companies Hope for a Piece of the Pie as the $787 Billion Stimulus Plan Looks Likely to Create an Array of Projects
Article
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By KELLY K. SPORS
Many small businesses, buffeted by declining revenue and tight credit, have set their sights on a possible new customer: the government.

The $787 billion government stimulus promises to create a bevy of federal, state and local government projects that would give small businesses an opportunity to win contracts and cash in on a slice of the stimulus dollars.

There could be plenty of opportunities: By congressional mandate, the government aims to award 23% of all contract dollars across all agencies to small businesses every year. State and local governments have their own rules.

Attendance at contracting expos and seminars is up as more companies try to learn the intricacies of government contract work. Many government contracting consultants are also reporting a surge in new inquiries from small companies looking into contracting for the first time.

Coldsweep Inc., a Mountain Green, Utah, company that provides dry-ice blasting to clean things such as industrial equipment, recently won its first federal contract cleaning two power generators for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in Montana. Randell Heath, the company's president, learned about the contract job -- valued at about $56,000 -- from an Army engineer who called after finding his business online. The Corps was so pleased with his job that they asked Mr. Heath to submit a bid to clean a third generator this spring.


Coldsweep Inc.
A technician for Coldsweep working in Flathead Lake, Mont. Coldsweep recently won its first federal contract.
Mr. Heath says he hopes the stimulus money heading to the Army Corps of Engineers, as well as to the building of clean-energy technologies, will result in more opportunities for his company to get work cleaning government-owned property and equipment. He has started scouring government databases for other contracting opportunities. Mr. Heath also is looking into applying to get his business on the General Services Administration schedule, a list of pre-vetted companies that government agencies can use to find contractors.

"We see a lot of government [uses] out there for our technology," he says, "so we're very excited about this."

Diana Dibble Kurcfeld, a Bethesda, Md., government contracting consultant, says her office has seen 50% more meetings with small businesses interested in government contracting, compared with a year ago. But while there may be a "blizzard" of federal, state and local contracting opportunities on the horizon, she says, many small businesses are unprepared for how time-consuming, expensive and bureaucratic pursuing contracts can be.

Related Story
Treasury Plans Small-Business AidA business first must figure out what federal or state agencies, if any, are buying their products or services and then network with the right people at those agencies. Then they often must submit lengthy proposals. It can often take weeks or months to hear whether a company has won the contract. Given such hurdles, Ms. Kurcfeld says, small businesses are often at a disadvantage compared with larger businesses that have a staff well-versed in the intricacies of government contracts.

Shelby Scarbrough, former president of the Entrepreneurs' Organization, an Alexandria, Va., executive-networking group, says many times it is better for a small business to start out as a subcontractor on government projects to get a sense of what government work is like.

Inexperience with contracting isn't stopping One to One Leadership. The Pelham, N.Y., management- and sales-training firm is hoping to reverse its fortunes by winning a slice of the government stimulus spending aimed at retraining workers who have lost their jobs. The four-employee firm has seen revenue fall by 50% in the past six months, as many large companies slashed their training budgets. It had roughly $500,000 in revenue last year.

"In my industry, there's a lot of concern about what our world looks like not just this year, but next year and the year after," says Sean O'Neil, One to One's 39-year-old principal. "Even tapping a little of that stimulus money would be a big help right now."

Mr. O'Neil recently spotted a notice on FedBizOpps.gov, a public online database that lists federal contracting opportunities, seeking bids to offer training to child welfare administrators through the Department of Health and Human Services. The project is so involved, however, and requires providing feedback to the government on its effectiveness that Mr. O'Neil is talking with other companies about teaming up to pursue the opportunity.

Small Business How-To Guide
Get tips and info from The Journal's reporters and columnists:

Hiring and Managing EmployeesStarting a Business with a PartnerSome contracting experts say the small companies best-positioned to take advantage of the stimulus money are those that already have established relationships with government officials and have experience doing government contracting work. Walton Construction Company LLC, a Kansas City, Mo., construction firm with about 550 employees, currently gets about 60% of its revenue from public and government projects such as constructing military barracks. Chief Executive Dan Frisbee says his company has seen the number of inquiries from prospective subcontractors double to more than 300 in the past six months.

But even with his experience, Mr. Frisbee says the process isn't easy. "The government has a lot of regulations you have to be aware of," he says.

Sometimes, all the time and money spent on trying to secure a contract doesn't pay off. Shajahan Merchant, chief executive of Intellectual Capital Services Inc., a New York software-development firm with 33 employees and contractors, has submitted full-length proposals for about three state and local government contracts since last summer. He has yet to win one.

Mr. Merchant says the process sometimes requires numerous photocopies of 100-some page proposals packed with information about his firm and previous work it has done. One proposal to create a software program for a government agency took 2½ weeks by two employees to organize. Several weeks later, the company received a two-sentence letter that thanked Mr. Merchant for submitting his proposal but said that his company wasn't selected.

Mr. Merchant says he has become somewhat disillusioned with the government-contracting process, though he will continue to seek opportunities with the stimulus package and plans to attend a contracting seminar. "All the doors you have to knock on and all the government agencies is a bit mind-boggling," he says.



















































Posted By: sbi Re: Are you busy - 03/12/09 12:19 AM
Things are really slow here. We had one big comm/muncip. contractor close the doors last week. Things are looking grim for now
Posted By: HotLine1 Re: Are you busy - 03/12/09 02:38 AM
Sparky:
Guess if you hire one of the 'consultants' to assist with the red tape.....

Jumping thru hoops? 100+ pages of copies?

Perhaps the 'consultants' have gov. contracts or contacts!
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 03/12/09 08:46 AM
well yes HotOne, this is very true

btw~just gotta brand new type of telemarketing call, one that alludes to 'federal stimulus work'

lots of times if it's a blocked call, or 800# i just pick up the phone without an intro, and let 'em get into their sales pitch a bit, then i foist my 'achmed the terrorist' voice on them claiming allah with strike the infidels dead jihad! jihad!, etc ad naseum...

i love getting tele-fools to hang up first.....~S~
Posted By: renosteinke Re: Are you busy - 03/12/09 05:21 PM
I'd ordinarily chastise folks for getting off topic, but ....

Things have been dire enough, for many, that there is a very real risk that they will be tempted by some of the amazing offers that pop up in such times. The current "stimulus" money is but the latest fodder in the campaign of fraudulent claims.

DON'T go for the bait. Never. Period.

How does government spend money? By contracting with you ... NOT with some middleman. These dollars are doledout by specific agencies, for specific projects - they're not just tossing money out the windows as they drive past - and they're certainly not hiring middlemen to do the tossing for them!
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 03/12/09 06:07 PM
well Reno, the economy in all it's granduer is gernmaine to anyone who is asked

In fact, i can't stop for a cup of coffee , and not hear about it these days , even in short meet/greet exchanges

the 'how's it goin?' , 'what irons have you in the fire?' , or similar talk have proliferated even the shortest of social graces

up that ante' among my trade peers to asking if help is needed. I have a stack of resume's right now from apprentices who are basically asking 'Are you Busy?'


i feel a tad obligated to respond to them, or anyone else who would ask, with simply a dry yes or no

that said, i do love how we can change the meaning of words here. i've noted everything from stimulus car rebates to stimulus burger specials

no doubt there's a few EC's who've jumoed on that bandwagon as well....

~S~


Posted By: Tesla Re: Are you busy - 03/15/09 03:20 AM
It's starting to look like the carbon tax is going to be blocked in the Senate. Whew.

Does anyone have any good links into getting up to speed in the PV business?

BTW, anytime you read about a large veteran outfit shutting its doors that's very good news for the survivors. If you can stay alive until the rebound you'll have the opportunity to recoup your losses as margins and sales rebound.

In my area the bulk of the super-sized contractors were launched as one-man-bands in the Great Depression. The same situation will reoccur on the other side of this Greatest Depression.

BTW, unemployment in California is over 10% ( U3 statistic ) it is over 20% if you throw in all the other categories of unemployment + the massive job loss by illegal immigrants. Yes, we've already reached Great Depression numbers in unemployment here in California.

The government refuses to count job losses by illegal immigrants though the numbers and impact are huge. Without work, many have gone home. So now we're reading about extremely troubling times all along the northern zone of Mexico. And at some Home Depot locations it's getting so that store customers are being practically mobbed by out-of-work illegal immigrants seeking work. That is exactly what happened in the 1930's.

The relevance to us in the trades is that the General Contractors out here used 100% illegal immigrant labor to construct residential tract housing.

I found them tough competition when they bid on commercial work. They may not have spoken English, but they sure could talk low bid. Of course, this was un-permitted screamingly un-code-worthy stuff. The entire building code went out the window along with all matters legal. It was impossible to compete against rock bottom labor and a no-overhead outfit.

That flood of cheap labor kept my prices on the floor and made it impossible to accumulate reserves.

I'm still trying to find a port in this storm.

Green projects may be the solution. Congress is apparently giving a snappy tax credit (30%) for such items.
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 03/15/09 01:57 PM
Quote
It's starting to look like the carbon tax is going to be blocked in the Senate. Whew.

Does anyone have any good links into getting up to speed in the PV business?

well we have the NABCEP on the east coast Tesla, probably many of us are eligible to test than we realize here .... this cert is usually required to obtain the rebates states offer...
NABCEP Solar PV Installer Certification
To qualify to sit for the NABCEP PV Installer Certification examination, a candidate must demonstrate that he/she meets at least oneof the following minimum entry requirement tracks:
A. Experience installing PV systems occurring at some point in the two (2) years prior to submitting an application for the exam in addition to completion of a board-recognized training program (see definition in Sections 3.2.2 and 3.2.3 below); OR
B. Be an existing licensed contractor in good standing in solar or electrical construction-related areas with experience installing PV systems occurring at some point in the two (2) years prior to submitting an application for the exam in addition to completion of a board-recognized training program (see definition in Sections 3.2.2 and 3.2.3 below); OR
C. Four (4) years of electrical construction-related experience working for a licensed contractor, including experience installing PV systems occurring at some point in the two (2) years prior to submitting an application for the exam in addition to completion of a board-recognized training program (see definition in Sections 3.2.2 and 3.2.3 below); OR
D. Three (3) years experience in a U.S. Dept. of Labor-approved electrical construction trade apprentice program, including experience installing PV systems occurring at some point in the two (2) years prior to submitting an application for the exam in addition to completion of a board-recognized training program (see definition in Sections 3.2.2 and 3.2.3 below); OR
E. Two (2)-year electrical construction-related, or electrical engineering technology, or renewable energy technology/technician degree from an educational institution or four (4)-year construction-related or engineering degree from an educational institution, including experience installing PV systems occurring at some point in the two (2) years prior to submitting an application for the exam.



Quote

BTW, unemployment in California is over 10% ( U3 statistic ) it is over 20% if you throw in all the other categories of unemployment + the massive job loss by illegal immigrants. Yes, we've already reached Great Depression numbers in unemployment here in California.

The government refuses to count job losses by illegal immigrants though the numbers and impact are huge. Without work, many have gone home. So now we're reading about extremely troubling times all along the northern zone of Mexico. And at some Home Depot locations it's getting so that store customers are being practically mobbed by out-of-work illegal immigrants seeking work. That is exactly what happened in the 1930's

well the old adage is there are lies, da*ned lies, and statistics Tesla, our governance openly admits this btw, note Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization from them. I'll refrain from any shadowgovernment links in this forum, no need to stir the tin hat bridage here....


Quote
The relevance to us in the trades is that the General Contractors out here used 100% illegal immigrant labor to construct residential tract housing.

I found them tough competition when they bid on commercial work. They may not have spoken English, but they sure could talk low bid. Of course, this was un-permitted screamingly un-code-worthy stuff. The entire building code went out the window along with all matters legal. It was impossible to compete against rock bottom labor and a no-overhead outfit

tell me about it......i live in the whitest most-english (actually redneckian) speaking state in the union, until there's a substaintail job. But the immigration canard wasn't propagated by the little guy, all the nefarious legislation behind it was engineered by the fortune 500's to crush us little guys. About the only business related avenue i would suggest that has a handle on this might be the NFIB

~S~
Posted By: renosteinke Re: Are you busy - 03/15/09 05:24 PM
Thanks for the solar cert info, Sparky.
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 03/16/09 02:11 AM
eh, well, it's an avenue to pursue Reno, i mean there's no harm in being diverse these days

i've invested much time , books, etc on the angle, you know it's not just the economy either, the economy has traditionally been a sine wave deal

my thought, like many garden variety sparkies like myself usually do, is a retirement nitch .....i ain't no spring chicken see...

and hey, it's a save the planet thing too, gosh we're knee deep in those limo libs here arguing about papaer or plastic already yanno....

i could pull it off, a druid robe, dreadlocks, sandals, a life sized figure of Al Gore ouside my geodesic dome office, and a yoda voice "Talk about Conservation we will"

:)~S~
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 03/18/09 11:22 AM
a little ray of sunshine.....

New home construction logs unexpected gain

~S~
Posted By: renosteinke Re: Are you busy - 03/18/09 03:26 PM
I've been as busy as a one-armed paper-hanger this week, so far. I've had to leave a partially completed job for a bit, while I take care of some more urgent matters.

It may be only 6AM Wednesday, yet I've already logged 30 hours - and it looks like this work will continue to fill this week up.
Posted By: sbi Re: Are you busy - 03/19/09 12:05 AM
thats good to hear reno. That makes me think work is out there and coming to all of us soon.
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 03/19/09 02:01 AM
2nd that, and yes i work for slumlords, even some slumqueens. i just tend to lock my truck more often while i do......~S~
Posted By: Obsaleet Re: Are you busy - 03/19/09 04:12 AM
Glad here some folks are picking up. Seems to be some glimmer of hope here. I am going to finish a job ( whole house rewire for the county redevolopment program) tomorrow. Seems to have been a great contact as there money is still there. Not the most glamarous work!But work and I made my regular rates. I have heard some are cutting rates?


Ob
Posted By: renosteinke Re: Are you busy - 03/19/09 04:34 AM
Sharper pencils? Perhaps. More common are the sudden "deals" scammers offer, thinking you'll be desperate enough to work at a loss. I rebuffed one such "deal" - much to the amazement of the guy.

These folks must think we're all stupid. If I'm going to go broke, I'll do it at home, in comfort - not busting my tail for some schemer!
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 03/19/09 11:55 AM
well i've noted more than one GC going from sub to sub with a 'in this economy' line trying to work both ends to their advantage

i guess it's just human nature, but i'm also rather big on what comes around goes around.....~S~
Posted By: Obsaleet Re: Are you busy - 03/19/09 01:57 PM
I to have walked from the deal scammers. I am more than happy to let them have a cheap deal from someone else. It just erks me that my time was wasted.
Sparky, the best is when they go sub to sub and don't feel obligated to pay the sub before and you find out while standing at the parts counter.

Ob
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 03/19/09 09:56 PM
yeah, the scammers are definitely having their day Ob, you know they feel you out to see just how hungry you might be before posing a 'deal' too....

~S~

Posted By: HotLine1 Re: Are you busy - 03/20/09 12:18 AM
Amazing the info we find out at the supply counter! And, also from any association meetings we may attend, or inspectors we may 'talk' to.

Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 03/20/09 01:19 AM
especially in a smaller pond such as i live in HotOne, flim flamism just has no place to hide.....~S~
Posted By: Tesla Re: Are you busy - 04/07/09 08:36 PM
Meredith Whitney states that the banks are going to cut credit card limits by 55% in the months ahead.

This means two things for us: we're prime candidates to lose credit access, perhaps altogether -- and our customers may find themselves going over limit much more often.

BTW, the banks are hitting card users with draconian fees and rates upon the slightest 'infraction.' For example, one guy had his 6% rate bumped up to 36% because he was two days late! Further, most banks have boiler plate in their terms that allows them to jump up their rates if you trip up your credit at a DIFFERENT bank!

BTW, the credit card industry is seeing record charge-offs and unemployment is still rising at a rate of 750,000 per month!

Consequently it is to be expected that our vendors will be pulling in their horns. If you want your supplier to stay alive it may be necessary to pay them even quicker -- and get better pricing for yourself.

Posted By: renosteinke Re: Are you busy - 04/08/09 01:17 AM
They say figures don't lie - but liars can figure.

While "the world" muddled along in the "Great Depression," someone forgot to tell the Finns; Finland was pretty much unaffected by the mess.

Likewise, it the economic disaster of the 1980's Detroit, somone forgot to tell Helmac - who couldn't make their sticky-tape lint removers fast enough.

Speaking of the 'here' and the 'now,' both Nevada mines and Alberta oil fields are simply booming.

As my cats tell me, life can't be all mice and moonshine!
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 04/08/09 02:52 AM
methinks i'd make a good cat Reno, i get by on very little , being a reclusive iconoclast does have certian advantages.

imho, people don't understand, or have a hard time understanding the ideology less is more

hey, yanno what my driveway (800 odd feet of mud) sign reads?

It reads 'PARADISE' in 4" letters carved into a piece of maple wood

now before i'm dismissed as wearing rose colored glasses, let me just say i've invested years into understanding social/economic/politicals

i won't bore this forum with what it really isn't here for but to say

..... paradise is what one makes it....

~S~

Posted By: HotLine1 Re: Are you busy - 04/08/09 01:48 PM
True words....Sparky

A good day is one where my eyes open.

Problems are what you make of them
Posted By: Tesla Re: Are you busy - 05/10/09 04:00 AM
Meredith Whitney knows what she's talking about.


http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/05/credit-card-lending-goes-full-cycle.html

This guy, Scott, was denied a credit card before the bank even sought his credit report. He lives in the bubbleated zone: Tampa.

The only bright spot that I'm seeing is energy savings -- particularly if they can qualify for the Federal 30% tax credit.

BTW, that credit can be carried into the next year. It also can be used for those filing Alternate Minimum Income Tax.

It also has no upper bound.

It applies to commercial as well as residential.
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 05/10/09 12:24 PM
well if i had the scratch, i'd be buying pallets of romex now.

why? well we're going to inflate here, all the major economic commentators for the NYT and WSJ, etc are saying it

the flip side of inflating is devaluation. so part of the silver lining here is any debt one might have is lessened via inflation

wierd, i know, but it's actually a good time to be in debt

the thing is, China (our biggest international debtee) is asking the IMF (international Monetary Fund) to consider SDR's (special drawing rights) to take the place of the US dollar because they know this

i.e.~if the US dollar is no longer the benchmark in a global fiat, we'll not be able to have an inflationary cycle (see the former Argentinian model) altering those outstanding debts

so that gets me back to those rare earths, like romex.....

Notice all the buzz over that lately?

Maybe we should bury some NM-B in my backyard, and offer up some deals in 2010?

just sayin'....

~S~

Posted By: gfretwell Re: Are you busy - 05/10/09 06:31 PM
That is an interesting proposition. I wonder what you could negotiate on a truck load of RX. Part of the problem is where you would store it.
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 05/10/09 11:37 PM
Originally Posted by gfretwell
That is an interesting proposition. I wonder what you could negotiate on a truck load of RX. Part of the problem is where you would store it.


well considering a rather large order, one might be able to go over the usual retail suppliers head , to a wholesaler

and yeah, where to put it Greg? oh well, perhaps UF would fare burial better eh...? ~S~
Posted By: HotLine1 Re: Are you busy - 05/11/09 02:58 AM
Ahh...Sparky sounds like a speculator (LOL)

I remember back about 20 yrs +/- when copper prices were going...up, up, up. At a single location, decent sized supply house, Jr. decided to buy a LOT of NM at the daily $$ and make a 'fortune' as it continued to increase in resale $$$. Sounded good? he agreed to a few EC's 'buy-in' at the daily $$ for future pick-up. Well...guess what? the $$ fell a few days after Jr. made the purchase...and he was stuck with 'high price' NM; or sell it at a loss.

My account with the local phsycic (sp) is closed, and my crystal ball is all cloudy!

But...best of luck to those who speculate!
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 05/11/09 12:25 PM
yeah , i remember a few up's and down's over the years myself HotOne.

it's happened before...Copper soars on speculation of Asian recovery

but, the simple supply/demand shouldn't be discounted as a prevelant factor either....

Escondida copper output to fall 30%

but your point of being in the right place / right time for anyone who would like to ride that speculative wave is key

but let's remember, there's always a few who come out high & dry....

~S~

Posted By: Tesla Re: Are you busy - 05/13/09 10:06 PM
Now we see that Advanta, the nation's 11th largest issuer of credit cards with particular emphasis on small businesses is shutting down credit extension immediately.

The shadow banking system is still imploding.

That means real estate deflation which directly affects us.

Of course, our costs have hardly dropped at all.

Banks are shrinking Home Equity Lines Of Credit.

In such times it pays to be liquid and make no attempt to speculate on materials price increases.

Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 05/14/09 12:42 PM
well Tesla, the Fed did just come out with their latest star rating system of solvency

not that i hold much stock in the fox/henhouse relationship there

but if you do read up on their pundits it would seem we have 3 distinct fiscal possiblities

become Argentina (you might recall the banking/inflationary cycle there) become Russia (in terms of balkanization) become China (tenant sharecropper)

until then, it's obviously socialism for the rich, 'stimulus' capatalism for the poor here

such is life in an oligarchy, squabbling over the crumbs from the table of the elites....

the irony is that top 1% (and make no mistake about purposely misleading upper quintels, or a top 10%) are enjoying an exponentially increased disparity at our grandkids expense, while the media and powers that be cheerlead it on

imho, throwing $$$ at any problem does not mitigate it's inherently systemic problems, it simply extends the cyclical nature of them as has been seen in our sine wave economy

what is needed is a closer look at the relevance of July 14th's historic implications , which is celebrated here now in 1/2 dz major metro's

~S(let 'em eat the rich)parky~

Posted By: Tesla Re: Are you busy - 06/17/09 11:08 PM
Well it's been another month and here abouts commercial construction is cratering.

Buildings are being abandoned in mid-construction.

The construction loan portfolio is imploding.

Industry experts are claiming that commercial real estate values have dropped 40% from the peak with another 33% drop from today's prices yet to come.

I had hoped for a sharp severe contraction that would set the stage for a snappy rebound like 1920 thru 1921.

However neither Bush nor Obama operates like President Harding: both committed to re-floating the 'bubbleers.'

The net effect is that the common man is subsidizing the high income crowd: making their bad investments government property/ blown money.

It would be better for everybody if the financial hits were taken by the highly geared speculators who made millions if not billions on the way up.

Unfortunately we have the best Congress that money can buy.

The water-drip torture of chronic erosion of real estate value -- particularly land -- just kills the construction trades.

Why Congress can't take us back to the old system that worked is a mystery. It's plain that no one wants to invest in mortgage backed securities anymore.

It's also plain that the US government is now the banker of first resort for residential mortgages: Fannie and Freddie are government owned as well as being government sponsored.

And with the government not allowing the big banks to fail under any circumstances they must be considered government sponsored enterprises.

Considering the government track record at the VA and the Post Office and at HUD -- yiikes!


10yr Treasury Notes are trading at 3.7% today. That implies that 30yr mortgages will soon be trading at 5.75%. ( These two rates bounce around a spread of 2 percentage points 97% of the time.)

Jumbo mortgages ( beyond $417,00; used for the McMansions ) are trading at 8% !

Right now the only ports in the hurricane are solar power and foreclosure rehabilitations. Since many of those really need the wrecking ball I recommend cross-training on excavators with a 'thumb.'

Posted By: renosteinke Re: Are you busy - 06/18/09 02:51 AM
I'd reply, but I'm too busy right now ... seems everyone wants a service change this week!
Posted By: Tesla Re: Are you busy - 10/30/09 02:59 AM
I've been reading that Citi is boosting their credit card rate up towards 30% for millions of accounts -- even those with good standing!

This smacks of a credit panic. Apparently the default rates for various card types is now so great that Citi wants out of the business, just like Advanta.

Apparently Citi is also backing out of oil company linked/branded deals.

Since Citi is such a major player it is reasonable to assume that their situation accurately represents the nation as a whole.

Beyond credit cards, it is apparent that bank lending to businesses is contracting nationally by huge amounts. Since so much of our business is supported by the credit markets one must take defensive measures.

The greatest peril right now is extending credit to general contractors. The risk is that one fine day the GC runs off/ folds leaving your billings unpaid. If you were depending on their payment so that you could pay your bills -- then it's all over for you.

The habit for most EC's is to lay off field employees and preserve the office jobs. I predict that it will become essential for you to curtail headquarters staff -- a very painful step.

Chasing bids with more aggressive pricing will prove fatal. Concentrating on sales/contract volume will kill you.

Your field crews are well aware of the contraction. The trouble is, from their point of view, dragging their feet and otherwise slowing down the job seems like the best way to maintain their income. Job completion is equated with a layoff. Hence, job cost overruns are breaking out like a rash all over America.

I've seen this with my own troops at all levels of seniority!

Hence now is the time to get out into the field and ramrod contracts towards the close.

Posted By: leland Re: Are you busy - 10/30/09 03:49 AM
Tesla:
You are just a ray of sunshine with every post.

I am going to go hang myself now.

OOPS, I can't. I sold my very last extension cord.To pay for the food of my children.......

Now what to do?

Relax DUDE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We ,you, us. Can take care of it.

Just kick back,relax and THINK.

You give up way too quick. smile
Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 10/30/09 08:00 AM
ironically, i've been getting biz from customers being told to jump through hoops by banks and/or insurance co's here.

they got tight, and it rolled downhill i guess

meanwhile, as the credit world seems to be growing teeth, nobody really investigates the magnitude or impact credit derivitives have made

methinks if more people really understood it, that it would be outlawed as extortion

~S~
Posted By: Tesla Re: Are you busy - 12/12/09 01:08 AM
Sparky, you are absolutely correct about CDS and their impact on finance.

In effect, over-the-counter CDS permit one to place a bet on the failure of a corporation or nation -- and then go out and drive them into bankruptcy!

Such tactics were employed against both Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros.

The larger problem is that the biggest thieves ever have gained control of the system ( DTCC, SEC, FINRA, et. al. ) and are bleeding the capital markets so severely that the markets are being subverted.

Goldman Sachs is on record: they claim that they made $100,000,000 PER TRADING DAY in net profits over 90% of the time this year. Such lopsided and extreme profits are a sure sign that Goldman has a systemic advantage over the market in High Frequency Trading.

So it's no great surprise that one by one major hedge funds are withdrawing from the market, having suffered astounding losses.

////

These antics impact us in the trades because ultimately our payment money comes from the financial markets -- mortgage funding and REIT syndications.

////

The brightest opportunities seem to be the new government programs: Cash for Caulkers.

I submit that to make it we need to don a total-energy-conservation cap.

The focus must be on thermal imaging for heat loss -- at the panel/ breakers and at the walls/ joints.

EC's should pitch whole house fans -- particularly variable speed fans.

////

Another arrow in the quiver might be repairing microwaves, electric ovens and other really simple appliances.

It turns out that swapping magnetrons is pretty easy -- and is beyond the typical homeowner.

Likewise swapping out heating coils is a breeze. Since the rest of these appliances are so reliable one can largely assume that these are the problem.

////

Another electric system that is constantly getting sick is irrigation controls. The field wiring is only occasionally at fault. Much more common is connection failures due to corrosion and sticking solenoids. The occasional swap out of the master control is 'cake' work.

Most homeowners are at a loss to solve these troubles and may well dial up a hack 'handyman.'

////

Tis the season for exterior lighting. Perhaps your patrons would like a Lighting Contactor Control (LCC) that cycles the festive lighting.

////

It must be annoying when the garage light has been left on forever. Perhaps the patrons would like a smart switch with a delayed off.

Of course, intelligent switches belong all over the house -- closets come immediately to mind.

////

Some months ago I noted the credit contraction by Advanta and Citi. It now looks like this is going to be the new normal for YEARS to come.

Commercial rents are going into full reverse. Here and there I reading of property values dropping 50 to 65 percent. Such a trend has caused big work to stop.

The only market that seems to be growing is demolition and or repossession.

Posted By: renosteinke Re: Are you busy - 12/12/09 01:51 AM
Tesla ... get thee to Minot.

They can't find skilled help in this oil-boom town. They're screaming for sparkies. Want more adventure? Go north ... to Edmunton. Canada has thrown the doors wide open to sparkies.

Posted By: sparky Re: Are you busy - 12/12/09 04:01 PM
Quote

Sparky, you are absolutely correct about CDS and their impact on finance.

In effect, over-the-counter CDS permit one to place a bet on the failure of a corporation or nation -- and then go out and drive them into bankruptcy!

Such tactics were employed against both Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros.


true enough, there's been much on regulatory concerns over Credit Default Swaps , and really all one needs to know is they are a predatory fiscal instrument....

Quote
The larger problem is that the biggest thieves ever have gained control of the system ( DTCC, SEC, FINRA, et. al. ) and are bleeding the capital markets so severely that the markets are being subverted.


well if we look at our economy as a debt driven GDP, it starts to make sense, at least in terms of these folks running it all off the tracks....

Quote
Goldman Sachs is on record: they claim that they made $100,000,000 PER TRADING DAY in net profits over 90% of the time this year. Such lopsided and extreme profits are a sure sign that Goldman has a systemic advantage over the market in High Frequency Trading.

So it's no great surprise that one by one major hedge funds are withdrawing from the market, having suffered astounding losses.


it's no surprise these folks are arming themselves either....


Quote
////

These antics impact us in the trades because ultimately our payment money comes from the financial markets -- mortgage funding and REIT syndications.


and it gains speed as it rolls downhill, or so the old addage goes...

Quote
////

The brightest opportunities seem to be the new government programs: Cash for Caulkers.

actually there's a cash for clunker ppliance program now.

Quote
I submit that to make it we need to don a total-energy-conservation cap.

The focus must be on thermal imaging for heat loss -- at the panel/ breakers and at the walls/ joints.

EC's should pitch whole house fans -- particularly variable speed fans.


well i'll agree on energy conservation Tesla, but i'd warn that the green machine, like any legislation here, can end up being another 2000 page bill that actually greases the wrong factions who have lobbying clout


a quick real world example would be all the new energy codes foisted on an already poor housing market by limo libs out to save the world.

this just fuels disparity, fine for those of us that are in the high end market, lousy for us that wire middle class dwellings imho....



Quote
Some months ago I noted the credit contraction by Advanta and Citi. It now looks like this is going to be the new normal for YEARS to come.

Commercial rents are going into full reverse. Here and there I reading of property values dropping 50 to 65 percent. Such a trend has caused big work to stop.


the commercial 'bubble' is the next conjected to 'pop' among all the Casandra's btw....

Quote
The only market that seems to be growing is demolition and or repossession.


of course, the vultures always circle a bad economy Tesla, in fact most of them can afford to buy thier way into Congressional dealings, after all they've long ago found a way to that brass ring here

myself, i've done much reading on the green machine. IIRC, almost every trade mag there is has touched on it, as well as i've been a Home Power subscriber since the mag had a staples in leiu of a real binding

Imho, the green machine will assume momentum here , but not in the altristic sense of enviromental concern, much more on all energy ratcheting up in unison, as it usually does

People forget Jimmy Carter's fireside chat , but they don't forget that monthly fuel bill

energy retrofits? energy audits? i've advertized this with some results already

epact you say? it's already a law? well i've found it about useless without energy cops, but i sure can sign onto being an energy vigulantie....


~S~



Posted By: frenchelectrican Re: Are you busy - 12/15/09 04:40 AM
I sorry guys But I have to lock this due it getting way off topic.

Merci.
Marc
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