ECN Forum Forums General Topics of the Trade General Discussion Area Probability Map of Device Failure Fire Risk

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A rough probability based upon hypothesis (read: BS) concerning the risk of fire for device failure. This could also be applied to splices. The chart shows a minimal (but not 0%) risk before the arcing takes place, rises to peak, then settles back down to a moderate risk.

What are your feelings on this?

Is this a reasonably accurate description?

[This message has been edited by sparky66wv (edited 11-25-2001).]

It seems incomplete to me.
Are they saying that once a device has failed the likelihood of fire increase to a certain point in time and then decreases if a fire hasn't already occurred?
Or are they saying that as a device ages, the risk of fire increases over time until a point at which, if a failure hasn't occurred yet, the likekihood of one occurring will decrease?

Sorry, I thought of this while troubleshooting a house the other day. I was trying to find a way to explain to a customer the risk probability of "leaving things the way they are and fixing them when they go bad" type of thinking... you know, the "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" mentality.

Of course, what was I thinking... I don't want or need the work, couldn't find the problem, rigged the gas furnace so that it would work and told her to call another electrician. One of those "it'd be easier if you bulldoze it to the ground and start over" type jobs... Lot's of DIY work, falsely grounded receptacles, twist-n-tape splices, etc.

She asked if it was safe, which started me on the tangent...