ECN Forum Forums General Topics of the Trade Non-US Electrical Systems & Trades National Grid in trouble

Those of us in the UK may have seen the worrying report earlier this week that the grid came close to being at maximum capacity earlier this week. I think we here in UK may start to see rolling blackouts if the weather turns cold. Apparently the France UK Link was at reduced capacity and a few other problems meant we were perelousley close a big blackout. What do you all think??

Let there be no mistake- this is a political issue, rather than a matter of trade competence.

Remember: "Fear" is one of the most successful tools in the political toolbox. Creating and exploiting peoples' fears was very prominently used by every political movement in the last century.

Ironically, the manipulated people never seem to notice that, once in power, nothing is ever done to solve the 'problem.' Rather, efforts are made to keep the pot on a low boil, forever.

Here in the USA, we also are exposed to claims that our 'national grid' is on the verge of collapse, that it can be easily destroyed by foreign hackers, and so on. (There are also ads for even more dramatic crises, such as the supposed coming failure of the farming community).

First off, there is absolutely no way any single event will destroy a 'grid' for any length of time. Such tales ignore the multitude of generating sources, the multiple paths between you and the generating plant, and the millions of skilled workers whose only job is to keep the system working.

That's why the real "reformers" make it a point to undermine these efforts. They stridently oppose the construction of any generating plants. They find fault with any means of generation - today it's coal, tomorrow it's hydro-electric, etc. They create "citizens' boards" and "environmental" concerns, solely to block transmission lines and prevent maintenance until AFTER something breaks.

Alas, at nearly 60 years of age, the guys at work consider me "old." This means that they don't remember the 1960's, when it was routine for utilities to upgrade equipment and increase capacity well in advance of there being a specific need. Those days are long gone.

Instead, the activists blast the 'evil, greedy' utility company today- then criticize the utility when something fails. I must admit, it's a lot easier to be critical than it is to actually deliver power.

Which part of the grid? Generation capacity, transmission capacity, or something else?

Here in the US, the interconnects between various areas are programmed to open up and isolate faulted regions. Theoretically, a fault in one area should not take down the entire grid. During times of peak loads, things can get a little dicey, but most rate payers are not willing to pay for 100% up time.

I understand bad things can ripple through the grid in highly interconnected places like the American North East, extending all the way to Ontario. We have had 2 of those blackouts that wiped out that whole corridor. There was also one that really only got New York.

I do wonder how that sort of thing would affect a place at the end of the line like Ft Myers/Naples.
Logic says that we have 2 generating stations right here and I imagine we end up exporting power to other places but we should have enough capacity to serve the local customers "offline". There are not many other grid nodes near us and we are not really in the direct path to anywhere.

The open question is how much can be done manually, if the switching computer interface was down. (hacked or whatever)

Ironically, today is the 50th anniversary of the major blackout that hit the northeast area.

Here in NJ, we are within the major 'thru' corridors.

When you are in the middle of the matrix, you should have very reliable power, as long as the system is working right.
It is where grid problems will affect you most tho.

The OPs original point is valid tho. If the grid is running at capacity, it doesn't take much to push it over the edge.
That makes me wonder about the addition of solar to the grid. When these things are planned, they assume a 9-5 society where the heavy use is when the sun is shining but we are becoming a 24x7 society and there will still be significant demand after dark.
Traditional generation techniques will be needed to serve that load.

Greg:
I agree on the 24/7 society, and the demand being not 9-5 anymore.

NJ is the 2nd largest solar (I hear) state after California, but we still have the 'standby' generation locations that 'fire-up' when needed.

While we are waiting for Elon Musks storage systems to become a reality.

While the OP refers to the British grid, the topic is far from limited to the UK. IMO, the issue is the direct result of the exact same factors - and these factors are purely political.

Full capacity? How can that be, in this age of energy-efficient appliances and declining manufacturing?

Very simple: Reduced capacity. Power plants being shut down, and resources being denied. From San Diego's nuclear plant to the mandated shut-down of coal plants, we're losing generating capacity.

Solar? Look at what happened in Nevada: There the PoCo caught grief for using 'too much' of the 'wrong' sort of renewable energy (geothermal). Yet, when they attempted to build a solar farm, the very same 'solar advocates' blocked the plan, speculating that putting acres of desert rock in the shade of solar panels MIGHT somehow cause harm to the environment.

Likewise, the Reno, Nv., area suffered for decades as the direct result of activists delaying the construction of a second power line into the area.

NO amount of technology can fix what is a political problem. Believe me, the PoCo's know how to make and deliver power; all we need do is get out of their way.

If you listen to fools, the mob rules.

The problem in the UK is twofold first yes the green brainers have forced the closure of several coal and oil power stations there was also a major fire at didcot power station which has taken 1000 megawatts of generation away the other 1000 was closed due to afformentioned greenbrainers. Secondly variose stretches of gridlines are at maximum capacity at peak times in winter so any failures of other circuits are a real problem. I agree leave engineers to make all the decisions and all is well let politicians get involved and yourheading for a disaster

Storage has already been the issue with solar and wind since they both tend to be intermittent and unreliable.
I doubt it will be electronic and also be cheap enough to be competitive. Even inefficient things like pumping water up into a lake and recreating the electricity as it flows back through the turbines sounds attractive when compared to things like the cost of Elon's battery pack.

I am still hoping they figure out this fusion thing but I doubt I will live long enough to buy fusion power.

OTOH I know I won't live long enough to see the ocean in the Disney World Parking from global warming.

I do share Annemarie's concerns regarding UK grid capacity and its resilience to unforseen problems. It is absolutely true that politics has the leading say, and the technical competence of many politicians is stretched in understanding that the wind farms they are so obsessed with won't work if its not windy. The determination to shut down coal fired plants is based solely on environmental targets. UK can experience very calm but cold winter weather and I believe this could be the highest risk situation. Some interesting data is available here:- http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

I think it's not just the grid that's overstretched I've noticed here that around 4:30 to about 6 pm we get noticeable voltage dips they are only momentary but sometimes several dips in quick succession. It's nothing in my house causing it its definitely coming from outside

One is often cautioned about citing personal experience to support larger claims.

Which, of course, is exactly what I'll do next

Voltage dips? Been there. Coming from outside? Sure thing? How far outside? Maybe 200 yards.

Something as simple as tree limbs rubbing on the feeder from the nearest transformer to min, and several, homes. Both "hot" wires damaged to the point that only a few strands of conductor remained. Trim trees, replace wires, and all is well.

This is hardly some sort of vague problem originating in the 'national grid.'

Remember, the national grid is only the name we give the millions of parts that connect to each other. The 'grid' itself can only be in trouble if a huge percentage of those individual parts are themselves in trouble. THAT's why the reformers' actions to limit maintenance are so dangerous.

When you fail to regularly maintain stuff that 'isn't broke,' you set the stage for lots of things to wear out at the same time. Reformers have guaranteed this result, by preventing the utilities from working on anything until after it breaks.

The 'grid' wasn't built in a day - nor will it fail 'overnight.' It WILL fail if we continue to let it fall apart. That catastrophic failure will only be the end result of decades of "deferred maintenance" ... another term for 'neglect.'

The solution lies not in some new bureaucracy, new rules, or miracle technology. The solution is to get out of the way, and let utilities do their jobs. This means paying them MORE today, so they can upgrade - effectively 'fixing' things before they break.

What we have now is the equivalent of not letting someone change their oil until their engine seizes up. Let them maintain the engine, and it will perform better and last longer - much, much longer.

While we're at it, we need to ask ourselves WHY the reformers WANT the grid to fail. Only then can we understand our enemy.

I've just seen on another forum more warnings that next winter we could see blackouts I don't think it will be that severe as I'm sure national grid will have a plan to deal with it but it's still something that keeps grumbling away why don't UK govt tell the greenbrainers to get stuffed and just restart all the coalfired stations that would end the problem in one fell swoop

The Nature Nazi's have a lot of sway, a lot more then they should.Calling them "greenbrainers" insinuates they have some gray matter between their ears.

I'm still more-or-less an outsider to this particular issue, but I can certainly understand the overall point here; politics is a necessary evil if ever there was one...

How exactly the ideals of the "greenies" are to be achieved without this sort of interventionism, I don't know. None of the available power sources are without environmental issues of one kind or another, that much is certain. Some say that nuclear is the only type that will adequately serve the baseload in the near future, while others won't touch it with a 10km pole (despite that it has been responsible for a bare handful of deaths, compared to fossil-fuel generation).

Whatever the "energy crisis" ultimately means for us - be that abandoning whole-house heating/cooling, businesses having to make do with dimmer lighting, accepting restricted power availability at night, etc. - it won't be solved with the fantasies of hippies, nor with the intense polarisation that develops around emotionally charged issues (well, almost any political issue, really). Combine those with politicians too stupid to make reasonable compromises, and there you have the cycle of interference and inaction. (And in case you're wondering, I make no claims for the viability of those mentioned saving measures. )

If anything, what most desparately needs to be invented is a system to keep lunatics out of political power. (Not that I expect it to actually work well. ) I can't deny that corporations wield, in general, too much power - but nor would I deny that groups like Greenpeace (they actually call themselves that?) receive too much credence for the general good.

It's no accident that this topic arises at the same time as a popular newscaster has a book out on the subject. Let there be no doubt: this is an artificially created 'worry' circulated by those with a political agenda.

However evil or powerful "corporations" may be, they are amateurs compared to governments. It wasn't "corporations" that murdered tens of millions of their own population in the last century - it was governments.

Which, of course, reminds us of exactly what was so revolutionary about the American Revolution. It's no accident that the successful rebels deliberately set up a government designed to regulate the government- rather than the traditional role of government limiting their citizens.

That's also where the 'free market' acts to restrain the abuse of power.

Those are the tools to keep "lunatics out of political power." Do they work? Well, look at how far we've come in two centuries - then compare us to even wealthier places that embraced different principles. Notice which way the refugee ships go.

Look at it this way: At the first sign of trouble, there are folks at the local power company perfectly capable of disconnecting your local grid from the national grid. Even under the worst possible case, we're talking about -at most - a few hours before everyone is up and running again .... except for those few places where the actual problem exists.

Perhaps...

Speaking as an outsider, though, I find it sometimes unclear whether the more radical "environmentalists" are deliberately stirring trouble to get attention or if they're just being unreasonably evangelical about their beliefs (as some of GP's actions seem to suggest). Not that it ultimately matters that much, as either way, it's plainly obvious that people place too much faith in them.

The thing I most resent about these extreme levels of political polarisation is that it leaves me basically unable to place real trust in the views of either side. Of course, when it comes down to it, a side often has to be taken nonetheless, and so it is the case here. Certainly, people need to at least understand how tough these choices can become (although in this case, I'd probably have sided with the PoCos).

At any rate, I fully agree that it's a delusion to think that "environmentalists" (or governments, for that matter) are "all good" - whatever 'good' is taken to mean (the ideology is a simple one, but translating it to real-world choices is anything but).

Of course, if you were to take the concept of a 'government to regulate the government' to its logical conclusion...where would it end? With any finite number of stages some risk will remain, although having at least a third level might make me (a bit) happier about it. But the fact remains, that the free market is only as effective as its players (so far from perfect, but the best we can do)...

I get everyone's point and what you say is right the greenies are far too millitant to be trusted I've only ever personally met a few but they were so nasty and unpleasant that even if I mite have had some sympathy with there veiws that went out the window within minutes of meeting them. Governments are also untrustworthy but some worse than others our current UK government couldn't be trusted to run a bath never mind a whole country.

From what I've read so far lack of maintenance and investment are the biggest threat to a stable electricity supply in most European countries these days. The worst power cut in Germany was caused by a mix of severe winter weather AND mis-management that ended up causing a domino-effect of transmission lines being shut down. The initial spark was a planned shutdown to let a large ship pass under some transmission lines. Lack of generation capacity had nothing to do with it.

I honestly don't shed one single tear over coal-fired power stations considering how much more efficient and useful (in terms of extremely quick start and load regulation) gas-fired plants are. Having a bunch of those on standby to step in when green energy sources can't supply enough power is a great thing! They can be up and running at a few MW within less than 2 minutes!

A few observations - and with no intention of getting too far off-topic

1) The various ideas regarding the relationship of people to their government was exhaustively discussed by the USA's "Founding Fathers" in the years between our (successful) revolution and our adoption of a constitution. The authors referenced virtually every manner tried - from the Swiss to the Iroquois, as well as the better known Greeks and Romans - and had some very lively discussions. Many of these are still published in book form as "The Federalist Papers." Alexis De Tocqueville also reported on our system in action during its' early years, in "Democracy in America."
I'd like to think that they came up with the best arrangement yet.

2) As for the virtues of various economic arrangements, it's still hard to top Adam Smith and "The Wealth of nations." He wrote somewhat before the leftist revolutionaries, and his views are completely in opposition with most of what is put forth as "economics" these days.

Please do not confuse the USA "today" with the USA "as designed." That's still a lively topic of debate these days, and for another forum.

As for power generation .... In 1985 someone in Israel proposed taking advantage of the difference of elevation between the Dead Sea and the Mediterranean Sea (400 meters / 1400 feet below sea level) to generate electricity. This was rejected for fear of damaging the natural order of things.
The advocates pointed out the risks posed by nuclear power (Israel has one small reactor), oil (guess who they have to buy it from?), coal (messy, has to be imported), and solar (not really feasible).
In short, there was no "acceptable" way for Israel to make electricity. So, Israel continues to stumble along on a "grid" whose structure hasn't changed a whole lot since the British built it.

That's what the rest of us face today.

All I ask is that we look at what works - and stop implementing solutions that have never worked in the past. This repeated insistence on failed ideas makes me suspect that our misery is the real goal of these these advocates want.

Or, as Rahm Emmanuel said, "Let no crisis go unexploited." Even, I might ad, if you need to create the crisis yourself.

I remember seeing somewhere else on this forum a discussion about that cascade power failure in Germany it just goes to prove that even the most careful engineers make mistakes trouble is if it a mistake on a large power grid millions are affected. Although on the plus side last time we had a big power failure at my old job we got to spend the day in the pub so not all bad!