ECN Forum Forums General Topics of the Trade Non-US Electrical Systems & Trades National Grid in trouble

I do share Annemarie's concerns regarding UK grid capacity and its resilience to unforseen problems. It is absolutely true that politics has the leading say, and the technical competence of many politicians is stretched in understanding that the wind farms they are so obsessed with won't work if its not windy. The determination to shut down coal fired plants is based solely on environmental targets. UK can experience very calm but cold winter weather and I believe this could be the highest risk situation. Some interesting data is available here:- http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

I think it's not just the grid that's overstretched I've noticed here that around 4:30 to about 6 pm we get noticeable voltage dips they are only momentary but sometimes several dips in quick succession. It's nothing in my house causing it its definitely coming from outside

One is often cautioned about citing personal experience to support larger claims.

Which, of course, is exactly what I'll do next

Voltage dips? Been there. Coming from outside? Sure thing? How far outside? Maybe 200 yards.

Something as simple as tree limbs rubbing on the feeder from the nearest transformer to min, and several, homes. Both "hot" wires damaged to the point that only a few strands of conductor remained. Trim trees, replace wires, and all is well.

This is hardly some sort of vague problem originating in the 'national grid.'

Remember, the national grid is only the name we give the millions of parts that connect to each other. The 'grid' itself can only be in trouble if a huge percentage of those individual parts are themselves in trouble. THAT's why the reformers' actions to limit maintenance are so dangerous.

When you fail to regularly maintain stuff that 'isn't broke,' you set the stage for lots of things to wear out at the same time. Reformers have guaranteed this result, by preventing the utilities from working on anything until after it breaks.

The 'grid' wasn't built in a day - nor will it fail 'overnight.' It WILL fail if we continue to let it fall apart. That catastrophic failure will only be the end result of decades of "deferred maintenance" ... another term for 'neglect.'

The solution lies not in some new bureaucracy, new rules, or miracle technology. The solution is to get out of the way, and let utilities do their jobs. This means paying them MORE today, so they can upgrade - effectively 'fixing' things before they break.

What we have now is the equivalent of not letting someone change their oil until their engine seizes up. Let them maintain the engine, and it will perform better and last longer - much, much longer.

While we're at it, we need to ask ourselves WHY the reformers WANT the grid to fail. Only then can we understand our enemy.

I've just seen on another forum more warnings that next winter we could see blackouts I don't think it will be that severe as I'm sure national grid will have a plan to deal with it but it's still something that keeps grumbling away why don't UK govt tell the greenbrainers to get stuffed and just restart all the coalfired stations that would end the problem in one fell swoop

The Nature Nazi's have a lot of sway, a lot more then they should.Calling them "greenbrainers" insinuates they have some gray matter between their ears.

I'm still more-or-less an outsider to this particular issue, but I can certainly understand the overall point here; politics is a necessary evil if ever there was one...

How exactly the ideals of the "greenies" are to be achieved without this sort of interventionism, I don't know. None of the available power sources are without environmental issues of one kind or another, that much is certain. Some say that nuclear is the only type that will adequately serve the baseload in the near future, while others won't touch it with a 10km pole (despite that it has been responsible for a bare handful of deaths, compared to fossil-fuel generation).

Whatever the "energy crisis" ultimately means for us - be that abandoning whole-house heating/cooling, businesses having to make do with dimmer lighting, accepting restricted power availability at night, etc. - it won't be solved with the fantasies of hippies, nor with the intense polarisation that develops around emotionally charged issues (well, almost any political issue, really). Combine those with politicians too stupid to make reasonable compromises, and there you have the cycle of interference and inaction. (And in case you're wondering, I make no claims for the viability of those mentioned saving measures. )

If anything, what most desparately needs to be invented is a system to keep lunatics out of political power. (Not that I expect it to actually work well. ) I can't deny that corporations wield, in general, too much power - but nor would I deny that groups like Greenpeace (they actually call themselves that?) receive too much credence for the general good.

It's no accident that this topic arises at the same time as a popular newscaster has a book out on the subject. Let there be no doubt: this is an artificially created 'worry' circulated by those with a political agenda.

However evil or powerful "corporations" may be, they are amateurs compared to governments. It wasn't "corporations" that murdered tens of millions of their own population in the last century - it was governments.

Which, of course, reminds us of exactly what was so revolutionary about the American Revolution. It's no accident that the successful rebels deliberately set up a government designed to regulate the government- rather than the traditional role of government limiting their citizens.

That's also where the 'free market' acts to restrain the abuse of power.

Those are the tools to keep "lunatics out of political power." Do they work? Well, look at how far we've come in two centuries - then compare us to even wealthier places that embraced different principles. Notice which way the refugee ships go.

Look at it this way: At the first sign of trouble, there are folks at the local power company perfectly capable of disconnecting your local grid from the national grid. Even under the worst possible case, we're talking about -at most - a few hours before everyone is up and running again .... except for those few places where the actual problem exists.

Perhaps...

Speaking as an outsider, though, I find it sometimes unclear whether the more radical "environmentalists" are deliberately stirring trouble to get attention or if they're just being unreasonably evangelical about their beliefs (as some of GP's actions seem to suggest). Not that it ultimately matters that much, as either way, it's plainly obvious that people place too much faith in them.

The thing I most resent about these extreme levels of political polarisation is that it leaves me basically unable to place real trust in the views of either side. Of course, when it comes down to it, a side often has to be taken nonetheless, and so it is the case here. Certainly, people need to at least understand how tough these choices can become (although in this case, I'd probably have sided with the PoCos).

At any rate, I fully agree that it's a delusion to think that "environmentalists" (or governments, for that matter) are "all good" - whatever 'good' is taken to mean (the ideology is a simple one, but translating it to real-world choices is anything but).

Of course, if you were to take the concept of a 'government to regulate the government' to its logical conclusion...where would it end? With any finite number of stages some risk will remain, although having at least a third level might make me (a bit) happier about it. But the fact remains, that the free market is only as effective as its players (so far from perfect, but the best we can do)...

I get everyone's point and what you say is right the greenies are far too millitant to be trusted I've only ever personally met a few but they were so nasty and unpleasant that even if I mite have had some sympathy with there veiws that went out the window within minutes of meeting them. Governments are also untrustworthy but some worse than others our current UK government couldn't be trusted to run a bath never mind a whole country.

From what I've read so far lack of maintenance and investment are the biggest threat to a stable electricity supply in most European countries these days. The worst power cut in Germany was caused by a mix of severe winter weather AND mis-management that ended up causing a domino-effect of transmission lines being shut down. The initial spark was a planned shutdown to let a large ship pass under some transmission lines. Lack of generation capacity had nothing to do with it.

I honestly don't shed one single tear over coal-fired power stations considering how much more efficient and useful (in terms of extremely quick start and load regulation) gas-fired plants are. Having a bunch of those on standby to step in when green energy sources can't supply enough power is a great thing! They can be up and running at a few MW within less than 2 minutes!