Considering all the details, I’m putting in a service sized for the finished house. This is the only part likely to be inspected — and I know all to well that if I do less it will be abused rather than replaced later. So it’s 200 amps, surge suppressor, dual ground rods, etc. I’m over-supporting the mast, and using a rigid mast, because of winter ice storms.
EMT to an inside 60~amp panel with maybe a dozen spaces. Four circuits serving receptacles on each wall, with receptacles set about waist high. An additional circuit for four pull-chain lights. Later, there’s room for a circuit to the (gas) furnace.
I’ll add a receptacle outside at the panel. The all-in-one service will also be able to supply the air conditioner and semi-detached storage shed later.
It’s difficult to strike a balance between “just a bare minimum,” code “legal,” and accounting for reality. The NEC is quite blunt in its introduction: the code is not a design manual nor is it intended to provide for future needs. I can’t speak for future contractors, but MY inspector won’t be crossing his fingers for luck.
