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#214681 - 01/08/15 05:52 AM Wall Street and Cheap Oil ==> trouble brewing?
Tesla Offline

Registered: 06/16/04
Posts: 1280
Loc: Sacramento, CA
Statistically, Wall Street (NYSE) has its best week of the year -- the very first week of the year. This bias is so pronounced that books have been written on it.

Would you believe that the first seven trading days of the last 100 years constitute something close to 50% of ALL the gains for the entire century!

A weak first week is so rare that it normally foretells a rotten year -- for the market and for the economy -- ESPECIALLY the construction trades. (Most construction is financed -- and tied to Big Investment Moneis. Poor folk don't build shopping malls.)

If the bull market realy is ending -- for your own survival -- don't extend credit. (GCs will sink your ship.)


There's another factor underway -- and with unlimited publicity: Saudi Arabia is engaging in a PRICE WAR.

While KSA says that no-one is their target, they are inflicting pain on all producers -- even as it's costing them about $ 700,000,000 per DAY.

While I love reduced fuel expenses -- I ponder where the KSA government is finding the missing cash to pay their crews and populations?

Since they are in the seat of decision -- it must have occurred to them to sell HEAVY their NYSE stock portfolio.

But not just KSA -- EVERY OPEC nation is drawing down their stash. Norway has the biggest stash:
$ 1,000,000,000,000 + (!)

KSA is not far behind (if you can even trust their records.)

Since absolutely no-one who is in a real position to know will spill the beans, we must simply assume that OPEC is raising desperately needed cash by liquidating their staggering NYSE portfolios.

[ While you'll hear of this or that mega investment in Citicorp or some such, most of these OPEC monies are spread across the entire market, index funds, style. Hence, why most stocks are soft, regardless. ]

I'm not going to offer investment advice; what I will say is that if the NYSE keeps falling -- be cautious in your business dealings >>>> especially lending/ extending credit to GCs. They, as a group, usually screw up. As long as the subs are extending credit -- collectively -- the GC can get so deep and behind that ANY business slow down blows up their 'game.' And, of course, this means a slew of bankruptcies right across the local scene.

Don't let that turn of the business cycle swamp you with bad debts.

Between 0-care taxation, a Saudi price war, and the strong US dollar, and the break up of the Euro -- 2015 is overloaded with risks you and I can't control.

{ The Euro zone is a huge factor in American electrical imports/ exports. When the Greeks leave the compact the Eurozone will be effectively shot in the foot. Prior European internal trade bust-ups of this nature roll back through the centuries. They usually trigger depressions, wars, and economic chaos -- lasting for years on end. The big players know all this, hence the perpetual credit extensions to the weaker nations. By now all of the smart guys realize that even after years of manipulations, they can't get the weaker nations to clean themselves up. They are THAT far in the hole -- and they keep on digging. }

Don't get trampled while the elephants fight it out.

Business, Office, Estimating, Legal:
#215224 - 03/25/15 02:31 PM Re: Wall Street and Cheap Oil ==> trouble brewing? [Re: Tesla]
sparky Offline

Registered: 10/18/00
Posts: 5545
Thank you Tesla

I've read a lot on this, and won't bore anyone with detail or epiphanies i might have

I'll just say i'm tired of the Oilocracy's tentacles reaching down into every aspect of my existence.

It's enough to make me go solar!


Edited by sparky (03/25/15 02:32 PM)

#215225 - 03/25/15 06:42 PM Re: Wall Street and Cheap Oil ==> trouble brewing? [Re: Tesla]
gfretwell Offline


Registered: 07/20/04
Posts: 9025
Loc: Estero,Fl,usa
We are still not sure what kind of devil's deal the Saudis have entered into but that is why oil is cheap.
It may just be the way we are squeezing the Russians and Iranians but I am sure politics has a hand in it.
I am just going to enjoy the cheap gas and understand there is not much I can do about it.
Greg Fretwell

#215226 - 03/25/15 07:14 PM Re: Wall Street and Cheap Oil ==> trouble brewing? [Re: Tesla]
HotLine1 Offline


Registered: 04/03/02
Posts: 6792
Loc: Brick, NJ USA
I agree with you on the lower fuel prices. And, there is not much most of us could do to either maintain the affordable costs, or figure out what the 'oil guys' are doing.

'Oilocracy'?? Nice twist there ~s~ !!!


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