I've been teaching at the local trade association, which has provided me with a view of perhaps 1/3 of the local electrical contractors. We're ALL hurting; long-timers say this is the worst it's been since 1979, maybe even worse.
A bad time to start a business? One of our most robust members started in 1979.
A number of contractors who had limited themselves to tract homes are now doing commercial work. Apart from the increased competition, their journeymen have a wage advantage over commercial journeymen. Job walk-throughs that once had but three or four guys show up now have 20. Several of the more 'reputable' firms have simply stopped bidding when this happens; there simply isn't the margin.
All that said, remember that no two businesses are exactly the same! For example, my business - which started with a focus on tenant improvements - has found itself drawn into more heating, air conditioning, refrigeration, and plumbing related work.
One simply must keep their eyes open; for example, the principal of our largest refrigeration contractor is retiring, and his heirs are weak. This means an increaded demand for an alternative provider. I already have some courses in this area ... and you can bet I'll take some more!
Likewise, this might be a good time to get yourself some phone / data / alarm / solar / lighting training and certifications.
